After rising by more than 50 % in the first four months of 2018, the cocoa price in New York has plunged by 20 % since early May. The price also failed to recover when, at the end of May, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) abandoned its previous forecast of a 105,000 t surplus in the 2017/18 season and now envisages only an almost balanced market. This was despite optimistic assumptions about production in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest producer countries.

Commerzbank Research said it seems that the market had long regarded the ICCO’s predictions as “overly optimistic.” Significantly more pessimistic assessments for Ghana and for the Ivorian mid-crop were often made. However, according to agency reports, farmers in Ivory Coast fear that insufficient rainfall could hamper the remaining mid-crop. If this is reflected in the shipment data, the price could rise quickly again.