Commerzbank Research says it expects a cocoa price in New York of USD 2,600/t in Q4 2018, a little lower than its recent highs. In a report on agricultural commodities, Commerzbank noted that the cocoa price had soared by 50 % since the beginning of 2018, to USD 2,750/t, having collapsed in the second half of 2016 and traded at between USD 1,800 and USD 2,200 per ton in 2017.

According to International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), the global cocoa market should record another surplus of 105,000 t in 2017/18. This is smaller than the last surplus, however, as global cocoa production is expected to fall by 2.3 % to 4.64 m t, and global demand for cocoa is expected to increase by 2 % to 4.49 m t.

Production in all major producing countries is expected to drop in 2017/18, albeit only marginally in the world’s largest producing country – the ICCO estimates that Ivory Coast will produce 2 m t of cocoa in 2017/18, which is only 1 % less than last year’s record crop. Commerzbank said, unofficial data shows a marginal deficit for the season so far after good weather conditions. The ICCO expects Ghana to produce 900,000 t, which is 7.2 % less than in the previous year.

“Not everyone is as optimistic as the ICCO,” said Commerzbank. “Ecobank, for example, expects only 1.9 million tons for Ivory Coast and less than 800,000 tons for Ghana.” ICCO is also much more optimistic regarding Indonesia, the third largest producing country, where it expects a decline in output of 3.4 %.